Then optimism takes over the market. Enthusiasm becomes bubbly and makes watchful, for the near future, the rapid growth between 7 or 8% annually. Interest rates down, having a lot of money into banks to lend, why not fire the luxury goods consumption and necessary. The consumer has money to import and spend. That makes the state increase its tax revenues on consumption and imports. And as the state always has a tendency to spend all their income and then some, of course, increase public spending and the economy will show abundant.

But, as the village idiot “of that kind do not so much!” It is expected that after a few years, three or four things to change. The public debt and enjoy their “durable goods” will begin to be cautious in their spending. The economy, unable to continue to grow and with a significant deficit in the trade balance, start boomerang effect. And when it foresees a troubled economy, investments decrease, interest rates rise, state tax revenue is reduced and the deficit begins to increase, which is why the state decides to finance its budget more international loans that banks begin to impede or deny, given the distrust of the markets. Domestic and foreign investors are afraid and start to take their talk again. Interest rates continue to rise, inflation gallops joyfully, unemployment makes his own and, finally, the economy goes into recession. The government, their income being seriously damaged, crops such as spending, investment in the sector first and then the operation, another tax reform proposes to raise taxes, makes strenuous efforts to control tax evasion and pursuit of its contributors necessarily intervenes to save bank savers and bankrupt, too expensively, to save another major undertaking of its liquidation.

The recession is critical. And for critical realities the most common solutions are the emergency measures. The country that we imagine is now the victim of the sharp devaluation of rigorous plans fiscal adjustment, the paralysis of their investments, massive layoffs, wage adjustments below the rate of inflation and everything else. And, of course, the country will recover! .